Putin Aiming for Victory in Ukraine by 2026: Defense Experts

Vladimir Putin faces an ultimatum in his invasion of Ukraine, according to experts and officials within Kyiv, as the war continues to exact a heavy toll on Russia’s military as well as domestic confidence in the operation.

According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), “Russia reportedly aims to achieve a decisive victory in Ukraine by 2026 before likely medium- to long-term economic and force generation constraints begin to significantly degrade Russia’s ability to sustain its war effort in Ukraine.”

ISW cited comments made on Sunday by Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate, at an international conference held in Kyiv.

Budanov said that 2025 will be a critical year for Russia in the conflict, as it battles with personnel shortages and difficulties in military recruitment.

According to recent analysis by the Rand Corporation, Russia’s “high-casualty tactics” in Ukraine, as well as the poor treatment of military personnel, have reduced both soldiers’ willingness to fight and the public confidence in the military operation.

The General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces said on Tuesday that Russia has lost a total 635,880 troops since the invasion began in February 2022.

While these numbers are likely overblown, the significant casualties sustained by the Russian military have forced Moscow to engage in more drastic recruitment measures to ensure its army remains staffed.

In late July, Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin announced a one-time payment of 1.9 million Rubles ($20,793) for soldiers who sign up, in addition to their monthly salary. In the Chelyabinsk region, these lump sum payments were doubled to 705,000 Rubles in mid-July.

ISW takes these measures as evidence of the “mounting costs and difficulties with the Russian military’s ability to continue recruiting personnel.”

Budanov added that Ukraine’s ongoing incursion into Russia’s Kursk oblast, coupled with drone and missile strikes on Russian territory, have eroded support for the war within Russia, and shattered the country’s “myth” of invincibility.

“With the first explosions in Moscow, this myth was destroyed on the territory of the Russian Federation,” Budanov said on Sunday. “This is the main achievement of all these long-range strikes.”

As a result, Budanov warned that Putin now faces a ticking clock to either launch another mobilization effort, as he did with the country’s military reservists in September 2022, or reduce the intensity of the operations within Ukraine.

Failure to secure a victory in Ukraine, he added, will also dash Moscow’s hopes of remaining a global superpower for decades to come.

“These are their calculations. If they do not come out as conditional winners by this time, then for the near future, about 30 years, they will lose the opportunity to be a superpower,” Budanov said. “Then there are two countries left: China and the USA. And the maximum that Russia can count on is regional leadership, which does not suit it.”

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